Student Project #23

by Joycelyn Airoso

PATHFINDER - BIBLIOGRAPHY

RESEARCH QUESTION:

How will the Year 2000 Problem effect the economy?

INTRODUCTION 

The Year 2000 Problem, also known as theY2k Problem or Millennium Bug, refers to the inability of computers to accurately process dates in the year 2000 and beyond. On New Year's day, 2000, millions of computer calendars will read the date as 01/01/00. The obvious problem with this is that the year 2000 will be interpreted as 1900. Millions of software applications will either stop working or produce erroneous results. This problem is embedded in millions of aging software applications, thus affecting computers worldwide. This occurs because many software applications use only a year's last two digits, while assuming that the first two digits are "19". Software applications that generate date dependent calculations will reach incorrect conclusions when using dates commencing with January 1, 2000 (01/01/00). For example, subtracting 06/30/98 from 06/30/00 in an amortization formula would yield negative 98 years, instead of two years. The negative answer would cause an incorrect calculation or even program failure. Typically, in scenarios of this nature, computers do one of two things: freeze up and/or shut down.

Date computation functions are used on millions of software applications, thus affecting millions of computers world-wide. It not only affects calculations for interest rates, inventories, or insurance policies, but every major aspect of our modern economic infrastructure. Government agencies, businesses, and financial institutions use software applications that contain date computation functions. The following types of organizations would be affected: utilities, transportation, manufacturing, banking, finance, defense, education, healthcare, and government agencies. Should the computer systems of these organizations fail, have you ever stopped to think of the economic effects this may have on our modern economies? The lifeblood of our modern economies run on information and computers are essential to the flow of information. According to Dr. Edward Yardeni, a chief economist for Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, "The problem will be a disruption of the information flow. Even if only 10% of the world's computers are not synchronized to register the year 2000, many computer systems will automatically shut down if they cannot communicate with other systems. That would result in a range of problems, from airlines canceling flights to companies not being able to automatically send bills, a situation that could retard economic growth." (Yardeni)

If computer systems fail when January 1, 2000, rolls around, "The impact would be similar to the economic effects of a snowstorm," said Rick Egelton, an economist at Harris Bank/Bank of Montreal. He predicts "a temporary reduction in sales as suppliers are unable to produce or deliver their products and consumers are unable to spend because paychecks have been delayed." (Niehaus)

The economic impact of the Year 2000 Problem is difficult to predict, but many experts have begun to predict global recessions. Dr. Edward Yardeni forecasts a 70 percent chance that the Year 2000 Problem will precipitate a global recession in the year 2000. (Yardeni) Another economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson, Leo Doyle stated "The doomsday scenario of industry collapse is a 'small but not insignificant possibility' that would lead to a global disaster 'far worse than recession'. (Browne) Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan stated that the year 2000 problem is already hurting the economy and warned of bigger damage ahead. "Inevitable difficulties are going to emerge. You could end up with a very large problem." (Miller)

In "Solving the Year 2000 Problem", author James Edward Keogh, refers to the problem as "the mother of all bugs". In his book, Keogh examines the frightening scope and complexity of the Year 2000 Problem and shows how businesses, organizations, government agencies, and financial institutions can protect against catastrophe. Keogh believes that fixing the problem is far from simple. The solution involves a sizable commitment that needs immediate attention. Keogh's book explores the problem in detail and explains the inside ways to stamp out the bug before the bug stamps out your programs. The book concludes with a five-step plan for assessing and solving year 2000 situations. The plan involves an inventory process, an assessment process, a planning process, a testing process, and an implementation process. (Amazon Books)

There is an abundant amount of Year 2000 Problem information available on the Web. The majority of the sites are organizations' Y2k compliance plans or Y2k consulting firms. The Year 2000 is quickly approaching and organizations all over the world are scrambling to test and implement Y2k compliant computer systems. The federal definition of compliant is spelled out in the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR), Part 39.002, published in the Federal Acquisition Circular (FAC) 90-45. The FAR defines year 2000 compliance as follows: "Year 2000 compliant means information technology that accurately processes date and/or time data (including, but not limited to, calculating, comparing, and sequencing) from, into and between the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, and the years 1999 and 2000 and leap year calculations. Furthermore, year 2000 compliant information technology, when used in combination with other information technology, shall accurately process date and/or time data if the other information technology properly exchanges date and/or time data with it." (FAR Part 39)

The global economy is dependent on these systems and failure to be Y2k compliant could potentially cause an economic recession. The final impact on the economy by the Year 2000 Problem will not be known until January 1, 2000 and the days to follow. As with any era, the Information Age has problems unique to itself.

Amazon.com Rev. of Solving the Year 2000 Problem by James Edward Keogh and Stephen C. Ruten. 1998. Accessed 20 Nov. 1998. <http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0125755600/qid=913864295/sr=1-4/002-7943050-5373430>.

Best Links on the Year 2000 Problem. Dec. 1998. I.T. Works. 10 Dec. 1998. <http://www.itworks.be/bookmark/year2000/index.html>.

Browne, Anthony. "Very Mild Recession Possible, Says Economist." The Guardian/The Observer. 28 Apr. 1998. Accessed 20 Nov. 1998. <http://reports.guardian.co.uk/papers/19980425-25.html>.

Davis, Steve. Dealing with the Year 2000 Problem. 26 Sep. 1998. Davis Logic, LLC. 10 Dec. 1998. <http://www.erols.com/steve451/econ.htm#Top>.

DeJager, Peter. The Year 2000 Information Center. Nov. 1998. Tenagra Corporation. 25 Nov. 1998. <http://www.year2000.com>.

This website was created by Peter de Jager. Mr. de Jager is considered to be the worldwide leader in creating awareness for the Year 2000 Computer Crisis. He has presented the Year 2000 Problem to technical and general audiences worldwide. Despite being a Canadian citizen, he was summoned to testify before the U.S. House of Representatives Science sub-committee hearings to testify on the Year 2000 Crisis. Mr. de Jager is also a special advisor to several government task forces. The purpose of The Year 2000 Information Center is to inform the public of the Year 2000 Problem and its costly threat to our economy. This site contains links to other Year 2000 Problem sites.

Federal Acquisition Regulation's (FAR). Dec. 1998. U.S. General Services Administration. 2 Dec. 1998. <http://www.gsa.gov/far/90-45/html/39PART.HTM>.

Hummel, Rob. Rvw.of Solving the Year 2000 Problem by James Edward Keogh and Stephen C. Ruten. Byte Magazine Aug. 1997: 30.

Jones, Capers. The Year 2000 Software Problem: Quantifying the Costs and Assessing the Consequences. MA: Addison-Wesley, 1997.

Keogh, James Edward, and Stephen C. Ruten. Solving the Year 2000 Problem. San Diego, CA: AP Professional, 1997.

In Solving the Year 2000 Problem, James Edward Keogh refers to the Year 2000 Problem as the "mother of all bugs." In his book, he explains the Year 2000 Problem in great detail and suggests various strategies for fixing the problem. The book concludes with a five-step plan for assessing and solving various Year 2000 situations. In a book review in Byte magazine, Rob Hummel found Keoghs' book to be "most approachable and enjoyable. Keogh treats the Year 2000Problem seriously but cheerfully." Another book review, by Amazon.com Books, stated that James Keoghs' book "offers hope for the new millennium. The timely book gives a brief, yet thorough explanation of what the Year 2000 problem is."

Kipen, David. "The Year 2000 and Other Problems." San Francisco Chronicle 20 Sep. 1998: 2. SF Gate. Accessed 20 Nov. 1998. <http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1998/09/20/RV64624.DTL>.

Klein, Ken. Y2kWatch. Dec 1998. CSIN. 10 Dec. 1998. <http://y2kwatch.com>.

Lord, Jim, and Edward Sapp. Survival Guide for the Year 2000 Problem: How to Save Yourself from the Most Deadly Screw Up in History. Phoenix, AZ: J. Marion Publishers, 1997.

Marshall, Jonathan. "Doomsayers Rant, But Year 2000 May Not Be Armageddon." San Francisco Chronicle 20 July 1998: D2. SF Gate. Accessed 20 Nov. 1998. <http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1998/07/20/BU58497.DTL>.

Martin, Roleigh Rev. of Time Bomb 2000: "What the Year 2000 Computer Crisis Means to You by Edward Yourdon and Jennifer Yourdon. Favorite In-Print Non-Fiction Books on the Year 2000 Crisis. Accessed 20 Nov. 1998. <http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin/nonfict.htm#Lord>.

Martin, Roleigh. Year 2000 Paul Revere Community Alert on Y2k Threat to Core Infrastructures. 5 Dec. 1998. 6 Dec. 1998. <http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin>.

Miller, Rich. "Greenspan Warns of Year 2000 Glitch." USA Today. 3 Aug 1998: n.p. USA Today Tech Report. Accessed 20 Nov. 1998. <http://www.usatoday.com/life/cyber/tech/ctc207.htm>.

Moschella, David. "Does recession loom?" Computerworld 28 Apr. 1997: 40. Academic ASAP. Infotrac SearchBank. Accessed 20 Nov. 1998.

Niehaus, John. "Two Bank Economists Produce Happy Face Report." The Business News of Dayton. 20 Apr. 1998. Accessed 20 Nov. 1998. <http://www.amcity.com/dayton/stories/042098/newscolumn2.html>.

"Ray, Russ. "What the year 2000 problem may do to the stock market and the economy." The Futurist Aug. - Sep. 1998: 16. Academic ASAP. Infotrac SearchBank. Accessed 20 Nov. 1998.

Saia, Rick. "72% say Y2k bug won't hurt economy." Computerworld 12 Oct. 1998: 28. Academic ASAP. Infotrac SearchBank. Accessed 20 Nov. 1998.

Sanger, Larry. Sanger's Review of Y2k Reports. 25 Nov. 1998. 30 Nov. 1998. <http://www.cruxnet.com/~sanger/y2k/index.html>.

The purpose of the website is to provide links and summaries of news articles regarding the Year 2000 Problem on a daily basis. Larry Sanger reviews Y2k stories on a daily basis to help his readers avoid old news, repetitive introductions, commentaries, and press releases.

Scheier, Robert L., and Gary H. Anthes. "Prophet Sees Megacrisis." Computerworld 12 Jan. 1998: 27. Academic ASAP. Infotrac SearchBank. Accessed 20 Nov. 1998.

Westergaard Year 2000. 1998. Westergaard Online Systems. 12 Dec.1998. <http://y2ktimebomb.com>.

This is a very informative site that provides information about the Year 2000 Problem. This site is very easy to use and is searchable. It also contains a Y2k Book Center, reviews of other Y2k websites, various navigation aids, and a special section solely for Y2k humor.

Yardeni, Dr. Edward. Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network. 2 Nov. 1998. Deustche Bank Securities. 20 Nov. 1998. <http://www.yardeni.com>.

Dr. Ed Yardeni is the Chief Economist and Managing Director for Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. Dr. Yardeni is also considered to be one of the best economic forecasters in the nation. His website contains up-to-date, comprehensive sources for economic and financial information. There is also a special section on the Year 2000 Problem and its impact on the economy. The purpose of his report is to inform the public (specifically the government) of the Year 2000 problem and to assess and update the likelihood of a year 2000 recession. Dr. Yardeni believes that there is a 70% chance of a worldwide recession and that the Year 2000 Problem poses a very serious threat to the U.S. and global economy. This site also contains various links to useful Internet tools and sites.

Yourdon, Edward, and Jennifer Yourdon. Time Bomb 2000: What the Year 2000 Computer Crisis Means to You. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall Computer Books, 1998.

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