Near Parkfield, California, there have been moderate-sized earthquakes every 21-22 years. These have been recorded at least since 1857. Scientists therefore expected a moderate-sized earthquake in 1993, but it is yet to come.

Because of the consistent earthquake activity, scientists found Parkfield an ideal place to try to predict earthquakes - or to try to find precursors that would help predicting earthquakes in the future. There have been lots of earthquake prediction experiments in Parkfield over the last decades. None of the experiments has led to long-term prediction of earthquakes, but some has found some small precursors, that might be able to help in the future.

"An earthquake results from sudden slip on a geological fault. Such fracture and failure problems are notoriously intractable." This is one of the main reasons that "the leading seismological authorities of each era have generally concluded that earthquake prediction is not feasible." (Geller 1616). Of the opposite opinion is Christopher Scholz, who writes: "There is no doubt in my mind that many earthquakes are preceded by real precursors, but their causative processes remain murky, mainly because we lack good observations." (Scholz)

As seen scientists do not agree on the subject of whether or not earthquakes can be predicted. This is the reason that many scientists have done experiments near Parkfield - and other places.

E

"A Test of Tiny Tremors". Science News 147. 14 (8 Apr. 1995): 223.

Bakun, W.H., and A.G. Lindh. " The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment". Science 229 (1985): 619-624.

Bolt, Bruce A. Earthquakes. Freeman, W.H., 1993.

Bolt is a professor at University of Sydney. His interests are seismology and earthquake hazard reduction. This book is in general about earthquakes and earthquake hazard reduction. "The true value of the book comes with its up-to-date treatment of earthquake hazards and prediction concepts, with a full section on the Parkfield experiment." (Wright 174)

Cramer, C.H. " Weak-Motion Observations and Modeling for the Turkey Flat, U.S., Site- Effects Test Area near Parkfield, California". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 85. 2 (Apr. 1995): 440-451.

Crustal Deformation Measurement at Parkfield, California. 1 May 1998. USGS. <http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/QUAKES/crustaldef/park.html> [accessed 9 May 1998].

"Earthquakes: Earthquake Prediction". Britannica CD 2.0.

Geller, R.J. , et. al. "Earthquakes Cannot be Predicted". Science 275 (14 Mar. 1997): 5306+.

Goodman, Jeffrey. We Are the Earthquake Generation: Where and When the Catastrophies Will Strike. New York: Seaview Books, 1978.

Gray, Chris. A Review of Two Methods of Predicting Earthquakes. 9 May 1995. <http://clgray.simplenet.com/paper/article.html >[accessed 9 May 1998].

Greenwood, Addison. Clocks in the Earth? The Science of Earthquake Prediction. Washington DC: National Academy Press, 1994.

Heppenheimer, Thomas A. The Coming Quake; Science and Trembling on the California Earthquake Frontier. New York: Times Books, 1988.

Thomas A. Heppenheimer, author of The Coming Quake; Science and Trembling on the California Earthquake Frontier, is employed at Center for Space Science in Fountain Valley, California. He has written many books and articles on many areas of science. His main point in The Coming Quake; Science and Trembling on the California Earthquake Frontier is how scientists try to predict the time place and size of future earthquakes. H.N. Pollack from Choice writes: "Heppenheimer acquaints the reader with the techniques of deciphering when major earthquakes have occurred along the San Andreas [fault] in prehistoric times, in order to establish a statistical understanding of earthquake recurrence intervals." (Choice 966)

Johnson, P.A., and T.V. McEvilly. "Parkfield Seismicity: Fluid-Driven?". Journal of Geophysical Research 100 (1995): 12937-12950.

Kagan, Y.Y. " Statistical Aspects of Parkfield Earthquake Sequence and Parkfield Prediction Experiment". Tectonophysics 270. 3-4 (15 Mar. 1997): 207-219.

Kerr, R.A. "A Slow Start for Earthquakes". Science 279 (13 Feb. 1998): 5353+.

LaMacchia, Diane. Small Quakes at Parkfield Provide Clues to Big Ones. 17 Feb. 1995. Public Information Department. <http://www.lbl.gov/Science-Articles/Archive/Parkfield-quakes-small.html> [accessed 9 May 1998].

Longbein, John. "The October 1992 Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction". Earthquakes and volcanoes 23. 4 (1992): 160+.

Michael, Andrew, et. al. Quake Forecasting - An Emerging Capability. 3 Apr. 1996. USGS. <http://quake.usgs.gov/QUAKES/FactSheets/QuakeForecasts/> [accessed 24 Mar. 1998].

Milton, Leanne W. Rev . of Predicting Earthquakes by Gregory Vogt. Science Books & Films 26 (Sept./Oct. 1990): 58.

Monastersky, Richard. "A Predicted Earthquake: What Are the Chances?". Science News 152. 9 (5 July 1997): 9.

Monastersky, Richard. "The Overdue Quake: Unusual Activity Along the San Andreas Hints a Long-Expected Tremor". Science News 152. 1 (5 July 1997): 8+.

Nadeau, R.M., W. Foxall, and T.V. McEvilly. "Clustering and Periodic Recurrence of Microearthquakes on the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield, California". Science 267 (27 Jan. 1995): 503-7.

National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (US) Working Group. Earthquake Research at Parkfield, California – 1993 and Beyond; Report of the NEPEC Working Group to Evaluate the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment. US Geological Survey Open-File Report 93-622, 1993.

Perlman, David. "Quakes Rekindle Interest in Parkfield Test - Scientists Study Hill Area Trying to Predict Tremblors". SF Chronicle 10 Oct. 1997: A6.

Pollack, H.N. Rev. of The Coming Quake; Science and Trembling on the California Earthquake Frontier, by T. A. Heppenheimer. Choice 26 (Feb. 1989): 966+.

Predicting Earthquakes. 23 Oct. 1997. USGS. <http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/earthq1/predict.html>[accessed 9 May 1998].

Predicting Earthquakes. Rev. of Predicting Earthquakes by Gregory Vogt. Amazon.com. <http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0531107884/002-3846167-9280028> [accessed 19 May 1998].

Roeloffs, Evelyn, and John Langbein. "The Earthquake Prediction Experiment at Parkfield, California". Reviews of Geophysics 32. 3 (Aug. 1994): 315-336.

San Andreas Fault on the Move at Parkfield. 16 Mar. 1998. USGS. <http://www.dakotacg.com/releases/pa/gs0318b.htm> [accessed 9 May 1998].

Scholz, Christopher. What Ever Happened to Earthquake Prediction?. March 1997. University of Oklahoma. <http://www.gcn.ou.edu/~jahern/v&e/predict/prediction_scholz.htm> [accessed 24 Mar. 1998].

Scholz, Christopher. " Whatever Happened to Earthquake Prediction?". Geotimes 42. 3 (Mar. 1997): 16-19.

"Shakin' on the Fault Line". Science World 54. 8 (12 Jan. 1998): 17.

Sterngold, James. " He's Still Waiting for the Big One: USGS's Richard Liechti Waits to Record Major Earthquake in Parkfield, California. The New York Times 19 Apr. 1998:WK4.

Stuart, William. "Forecast Model for Moderate Earthquakes near Parkfield, California". Journal of Geophysical Research 90 (10 Jan. 1985): 592-604.

Stuart, William D. and Terry E. Tullis. "Fault Model for Preseismic Deformation at Parkfield, California". Journal of Geophysical Research 100. 12: 24079-24099.

Tazieff, Haroun. Earthquake Prediction. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1992.

Tullis, Terry E. " Rock Friction and Its Implications for Earthquake Prediction Examined via Models of Parkfield Earthquakes". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 93. 9 (30 Apr. 1996): 3803+.

Vogt, Gregory. Predicting Earthquakes. New York: F. Watts, 1989.

Vogt here writes about how earthquakes are predicted, located and measured. This book "is distinguished by emphasizing scientific instruments and methods to predict or control these phenomena [earthquakes]" (Milton 58). Predicting Earthquakes is " a good description of the development of quantitative observing techniques, and clear discussion of our still maturing attempts to forecast such events [earthquakes]" (Predicting earthquakes 1998)

Wright, William H. Rev. of Earthquakes by Bruce A. Bolt. Science Books & Films 29 (Aug./Sept. 1993): 174.

| Home | Syllabus | Assignments | Text | Student Projects | Instructor |

These materials may be used for educational purposes, but please inform and credit the author and cite the source as: LSCI 105 Computerized Research. All commercial rights are reserved. Send comments or suggestions to: Eric Brenner at brenner@smcccd.cc.ca.us